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🔴 What Do Experts Say About Recession? Raoul Pal & Julian Brigden Debate | Recession Watch

September 5, 2019


So How are you? I am okay, mate look I mean It’s not an easy market. I just had a call with a big hedge fund client You know we’re looking at a lot of things We haven’t pulled the trigger on them at the moment very few, you know trades even for the what I would call the pros But I I can taste it I think I can taste it I think things are lining up We pulled a few positions. There are some things that are working. There gold is working, you know Really really nicely the gold miners that we recommended As well as working nicely We got stopped out of some stuff. Now the question is is it stop and reverse? Lights are there. So the ADX why the shor dollar against the asian currencies obviously got blown out after the China thing But that wasn’t it wasn’t a you know awful We stopped out of our long Treasury trade we haven’t reversed it yet Really? You know, but it’s quite tough because you’ve got these Super conflicting signals. I mean, the biggest thing that I’ve been talking to me institutional clients about is when I Look at this thing to use that Sesame Street expression One of these things is not like the other one of these things just does not belong When you look at the relative price action of the bond market and you look at the relative price action of the equity market It’s not right It’s not right now. That doesn’t tell you anything about direction. It could tell you well the equity market could fall or the bond market Could start to sell-off and yields could start to rise But I think it’s very interesting that Both of the markets are essentially betting on the same thing Rowell They’re both betting on rate cuts. Okay, if you start to look at the the equity markets clear though that they’re betting that those rate cuts are going to be Reflation and they’re going to work all right, if you look at the bond market whether you look at the shape of the curve whether you look at Whether that sort of two stains or tens to 30s or whatever the hell you want to choose or whether you look Further in the sort of weeds at the front end of the Eurodollar strip and you look at some euro dollar spreads They’re all telling you yeah, the feds going to cut but it ain’t going to work right we’re going into a recession, you know if you look at I was looking at the spread between Dec 19 and Dec 20 yards though. This is all a bit, you know Overly complex for a number of people but it’s a extremes that we saw ahead of 2000 recession and 2006 2007 now that means the bond market ain’t just betting on a slowdown it’s betting on a bloody big recession and That’s potentially valid We can see things in the real economy. Which look bloody dire but the equity market isn’t there and the Fed just Told you at the last FOMC that their overriding priority Was extending the cycle now they haven’t delivered To extend the cycle. I’m not thinking they I don’t know whether they know how much they need to extend the cycle but if they extend the cycle then the equity market is right and Ultimately as we saw in 2016 The bond market is wrong, and it could be wrong in a major bloody way Right. We we use that stupid little metric on Moving averages in the S&P and they’ve worked and it’s held up right? We got the buy signor We now you was meant to be betting on a higher bond equity market. You could say that they’re all smoking crack But it could be the bond market that is utterly wrong and if if the dollar starts I don’t know. What do you think here on this bond market? Um, I think it is It’s gone quite a long way so it’s the game I I spend a lot of time a bit I was very active trading this both in 2000 and 2008 and I think it’s a it’s almost a rerun of 2000 What the two year bonds look like over the last two and a half years look identical to them and my thought process is The Fed Cup 50 and they have to cut 50 the economic data is falling apart globally It’s not enough the bond markets, right the bond market will steep in like crazy And that is free money the bond markets deepening because if there’s some normal fiscal stimulus or the stump sips stimulus that happens the bond market steepens if the world falls apart the bond market Stevens so what that’s like there no-brainer trade in the world which which does mean that the risk/reward is not to be long things like TLT which is Baker s Keynes and thirties. Yes, it’s the short end. Now is there a chance of a back up? Yes, I’ve taken tons of profits all over the place on all of this stuff. It had been One of the better trades I’ve ever done was this whole fixed income trade over the last nine months and I’m Desperate to put it back on again and I’m waiting and my Demark counts give me that it should start bouncing this week So next week, maybe it starts over and short everyone starts Closing out of Long’s going into the fed after that All right, so I think I think rates go to zero I think we’re in the full cycle I think they go to zero and they go negative in the US. So I think every single opportunity To buy a bond at whatever price is a great opportunity, I think also, I will have I’m now probably at The first part of the trade I was at 100 percent convictions on the most conviction I’d ever had I’m now shifted to about 70 percent conviction because if the dollar goes up Which it won’t go one where the bloody other but if it goes up which I think it’s likely to do once that the The debt ceiling is raised and I think and also the first cut in 2000 once they had the first cut The dollar rocketed if that’s the case Then I’m going back to a hundred percent chance that we go to zero rates and what they’re very quickly I think I still think they’ll cut a hundred basis points this year So I’m at the far end and I’ve spoken at several big macro events And there’s there’s a few people in my camp. There’s one or two big guys in London There’s a couple of guys in the West Coast and there’s maybe one in, New York Almost everybody else has kind of been One way or the other everybody wants to fade bonds right now and though you’re itching to as a trade. That might well work I’ve no idea But so that’s my view and unless I see something different any change And with that view now I get that you’re saying the equity market is not acknowledging. I think the equity market comes later The credit markets equally as bizarre as the equity market. Mmm. You can’t have bonds where they are Well the moment the yield curve steepens everything will change once you because Stevens the equity market Falls once the yield curve Stevens Credit starts changing and then we start changing the picture So that’s kind of My thing I’m really changed my tune. I’ve just taken some profits because money in the bank money in the bank We’re both in the same place. We’ve both taken profits who were both long Treasuries right. We’re betting on lower yields and we were both right It’s one of those times I think you know Great minds think alike call it what the hell you will but it was certainly a high conviction trade for both of us I think We’re both out. We’re both looking for a retracement In it, so higher yields lower bonds Neither sure quite how far it goes my bet is it’s not part of the process of going 2-0 It’s part of the process of going to four ultimately over number of years But the fact is we’re both looking for a backup, so at this point, we wouldn’t neither this would be long certainly TLT There’s no I’m saying no, I’m still long some euro dollars. Oh no, no, no No, I was gonna say I don’t know whether we disagree necessarily on Edie’s on euro dollars. So the front end, that’s fine I think it’s a great place to park some cash I am a little concerned I will be honest with you out about the July FOMC meeting Because what I am hearing from my policy contacts is the the base case is in 50 Okay Now do the Fed end up cutting a hundred? doesn’t really matter right what matters is timing and There’s been times in the past where the feds cocked it up, okay, so one of those for example was 2003 so if you cast your mind back, I wonder actually I think you were a client at glj So late 2002 Greenspan came out and uttered a phrase Unconventional monetary policy and No, one had heard of what unconventional monetary policy was and so we got lots of calls up medley from clients going What is unconventional monetary policy? You’re the policy boys tell us and We went off and spoke to some fake contacts and they said well, sis this theory it’s this pipe dream in the moment if we ever get to the point that we can’t cut rates anymore what other things could we do so The feedback that we got was look, you know, this is a pipe dream It’s what you do if you ever hear zero interest rates And you’ve got no room to cut you turn to these other unconventional monetary policies So we say to people it’s just a pipe dream, right? It’s just fictitious at this point. It’s not this cycle maybe it’s next but the point is the bond market ran with it and it ran with it as You remember like crazy and the curve flattened? Like enormous lis, massive run long end rally Right into the March FOMC meeting now the Fed cart 25 basis points at the March FOMC But the trouble is the market was looking for more and 10-year yields spiked in two weeks fifty-five basis points so I worry that there’s a disconnect at the moment between markets and The faith. I’m not sure that ultimately they’re wrong. But the question is Julian is I remember that scenario and I was long Eurodollar futures Expecting the cut. So what happens is they don’t cut? your dollars backs off for a few days and Then everyone looks at each other went well. They’re gonna have to cut next time And they’ve really piled back in again. So the long ends. Yes because things changed Yeah, but the short end if they don’t cut enough Then all hell is gonna break loose no I totally I totally agree. I just think this is an interesting, you know, as I said I disagree my big thing here is How much do they need to cut to weaken the dollar? because you know, we’ve been sitting on the sidelines on the dollar a Little bit, you know with exception of that a txy and a pseudo dollar sure via gold which is worked out very well but We’ve been a little reticent to pull the trigger on a short dollar trade. If only as you well know mate For most of our listening public for certainly for macro insiders Trading anything that doesn’t include a shitload of euros in it is bloody hard Right and I don’t see that much of a pattern in the euro, I want to be sure dollars Really want to be short dollars. I think if you look at a chart of dollar Stocki today, it’s really interesting Okay, it’s broken a trend line that’s held it for a while It came back it tasted it seems to be failing again But you know, you can’t pull the trigger on that baby ahead of non-farm payroll on Friday but the point is is I really want to do it but If that starts to roll If the dollar starts to roll then I’m I think maybe it changes your bond Calculation quite a lot because a weak dollar we got in 2016 and a weak dollar was Instrumental at creating the true sustainable reflation trade. Yeah. I just don’t see the probability of a weak dollar I see the probability of a correction I just don’t see the probability in this scenario of a of a weak dollar I just don’t think that it’s anything to do with rate differentials. I think that And I went through this and I’ve just written GMI I’ve looked through it and I Couldn’t find really the main correlation. There just doesn’t do it. So I don’t see that. It’s not growth differentials It’s not rate differentials. It’s a number of factors all combined. But so I I don’t see like Obviously I can be dead wrong and I just don’t see a meaningful Every meaningful weaker dollar everybody I speak to you wants to sell the dollar on rate cuts Well, everybody’s had the chance you’ve had rate cuts you had tariffs walking away. They’ve walked back from Mexico. They’ve done this They’ve done that and the dollar has not sold off. So I don’t know what you need for the dollar to sell off But it’s not what everybody’s looking for. You have seen some weakness in some of these Asian currencies, right? You saw a little bit of sorry dollar against the Asian currencies Which it you would expect yet much marginal right in the overall in the overall scheme of things It’s it’s a very marginal move and it may be look it’s it’s I’m not as I said, I haven’t pulled the trigger Right. I mean, let’s be honest. It’s entirely possible Well now I don’t think the ECB in their wildest bloody dreams can keep pace with the Fed if the Fed gets real about cutting right if the Fed gets real about cutting they’ve got about 300 basis points on the ECB that They cut. I think the big issue here is the closeness to extraordinary measures That’s what gold and Bitcoin are telling you so I think the Fed having 300 basis points of proper interest rates to cut is worth a lot less in currency weakness terms than the ECB having to do something else and having christine lagarde now Christine Lagarde Running the ECB. I think it’s going to become more political in its nature which allows for more fiscal Yeah, mmt style workouts Yeah But look I don’t you’d hope and she’s bloody right she is absolutely right to put on her pair of Stiletto highjack boots and kick the Germans right in the balls and tell him to spend money That’s what she’s she just came out with it. She said, you know those countries got room to spend money Should be spending money and the Germans need to spend it look at their infrastructure It’s for shit now, right, but I’m not sure the Germans are going to do it So and I’m not sure that the ECB can stray so far away from where they are Well, they going to buy they could buy more corporate bonds. They can buy more corporate bonds They could go negative further negative There is nothing like deutsche bank and commerce bank going bust to focus the attention on what you have to do for Europe. All right But so far they haven’t done that mate Right, if you look at the look stock prices for shit, but the c.d.s hasn’t moved because post people I think logically assume That the Germans have got ultimately when push comes to shove, right? They will have to back up Deutsche Bank Right. Otherwise you could make Lehman look like a walk-in sodding Park So, I’m not sure that that’s the trigger the Growth stuff could be the trigger Trump getting truly having a go at the Europeans could be the trigger I think really he probably wants to wait till the UK leaves Then I think he’s going to turn around and like the gun barrels on the Arizona aiming at the beaches in Utah, right? The Utah Beach is indeed a I think he’s going to give them a full side blast They’re right to ask the Germans to ease. I’m just not sure the Germans are ready to do it Could you get the Germans to the point that they start physically easing you could? And I think a bit of euro strength may help them along They’ve got some inordinate problems over their rail. I mean I was looking at inventory in the German car industry Outside the global financial crisis. You’ve got to go back to 2001 to get anywhere close. Those guys have got you know Overhangs, which mean they’re gonna have to slam production Which are horrible. I totally agree. So my view is that that Europe is getting backed into a further corner what’s interesting is we haven’t yet heard much from them from the BOJ but their economy starting to weaken and They have literally nothing left to do without going towards I mean I think and I think I don’t know where youths analyst I think at the end of this is the debt you believe They’re gonna loan every single bond that the government creates and That is the end game I think gold and Bitcoin have to price in what does that mean? I don’t really know whether it’s probably very positive for Japan if the currency could hold up But I think the currency could trade 250. Yeah, you know, let’s see I mean, the big advantage is Japanese how it’s less than it used to be is they owned quite a lot of their own debt? You know and there and the voj can own it all you know, look I like I Like if this is a let’s just play this out – if this is let’s just say that the Europeans Whether you’re right because some of my colleagues believe that you’re right I’m not so certain at least straight off that the Europeans try and match whether they do it by extraordinary other policies They try and match the feds easing. ‘he’s right? So it’s a race to the bottom Okay in that scenario certainly gold and you know Bitcoin, like I have a big ultimate problem with Bitcoin, but it could be a bloody amazing trade Both of them could be amazing trades because you’re talking about undermining Removing any obstacle for you owning those because they’re non interest rate bearing, right? And as rates get can’t they do? tremendously well But it could be just the beginning of the death of the fiat currency now, you know I’m not sure that that’s necessarily the case My base case is the dollar starts to weaken in which place those currencies Those should still do very well but I actually think it weakens against the Europeans and and to some extent the Japanese to begin with and that forces come next year a major three thing by the Europeans because I think that both the Japanese and the US are essentially on the cusp of exporting deflation to these guys and They’re gonna get fucked and they’re gonna have to stand up and do something dramatic to your point next year which means you get initially dollar weakness, you’re a strength and then maybe next year you flip round when they really Do something dramatic. I mean I’ve got on the dollar thing. I’ve got some some puts on the dollar Because I do think it corrects a bit, but even I’m surprised how little it’s bloody correcting I thought I could do a tactical trade make a bit of money at Painful may its pain that’s why we haven’t that’s I really want to go around to all the mi and do that flash update You know sell dollars But the stuff you can trade as I said, we all know in the retail space is heavily euro orientated and so fights just like You be have more fun sticking red-hot needles up you, you know under your fingernails good thing is we know when to buy it Really and if it if if it breaks the kind of the 98 on the upside properly It sees you don’t have to do anything from them the downside you could go to the bottom of the range So there’s a few percent to be made from that before we have to make a real big view So, you know, I don’t mind that bet for the short term I’m interested also in watching the commodity markets Because copper is not telling us that there is some bounce coming is not telling us what equities are doing the oil market I mean today was down five percent feels like it’s breaking lower equity oil equities of breaking lower feels like there’s a lot of things that don’t trade like The equity market is right You know and if I’d listened to the old stand Drucker Miller interviews It’s one thing he talks about is when you look at the internals things like different asset prices doing different stuff So commodities are completely in line with what the bomb market showing us The dollars kind of not made it’s bet Although in trade-weighted terms the dollars almost at all-time highs By the equity markets hi, I don’t know what do you think about that whole mix between come on I mean obviously gold is telling you the opposite to Copper so look, I’d be very frustrated. I’ve liked the idea of silver and of Platinum potentially participating and they’re off there are slows but barely right and they’re woefully Underperforming gold and and in 2016 they did and I don’t My concern Rowell to your point. May is that what they’re sending is a very Deflationary signal What they’re selling sending you is yes the dollar may well we can yes rates are falling but there’s no growth and this is interesting chilling because if Silver and both and so I just it just to add why they both platinum and silver unlike gold still have a fundamental Industrial demand behind him so you would expect them to do well in an environment where rates were coming down The dollar was weakening, but ultimately growth was coming. So there’s not they’re telling you that the the commodity market does not think that the dollar is going to weaken but it tells you that they think that deflation and Extraordinary monetary conditions are going to prevail so hence gold spread to silver gold spread to copper you know, it’s super interesting and we both talked in the past about a an environment where the dollar and Gold can rise Well, we saw that and we saw Bitcoin as well. It’s like okay, this is super interesting now that narrative may not run in a straight line And I don’t think it will but it’s bloody interesting. Yeah Yeah, I mean bloody depressing frankly, but bloody interesting It’s It is a race to the boss. So you’re not of the opinion that we go into recession and I’m of the opinion We almost are in recession. Well, no Let me let me say let me say this We are going to have at least a technical recession in Europe, I believe I think the numbers look pretty dire. What do you mean by technical recession? You know, maybe two quarters of negative GDP growth but it is an I have I can’t yet at this point now all put the hand on my heart and say this is you know, 2000 or 2007 2008. No, it’s not it’s not yet But what is the because look it could be made what if but we need to look forward, right? That’s what we get paid to do. So what is what is your probability of it being? something deeper first is a Recession miss versus as you call it a technical recession. Give us a bit of your outline of so much technical recession I’d probably put at 60% at this point in Europe 60 70 % ok Technical recession so to cause a negative GDP growth Less than 20 percent. Okay, so you just sell bones, right? Yeah That’s all I just I mean we both are looking for high yield, you know, you’re looking for high yields to then By that by those by that sell-off in bonds. I’m looking for higher yields, but maybe three weeks if we’re lucky I mean I so I’m Completely opposite side of the bet and this is not unusual because I just saw the Barclays Macro survey and the market is exactly as you and I are which is I am It’s going to weaken. It’s going to recession and you are it’s going to recover and the bond markets wrong so I say the bond markets wrong because I think rates are going to zero you say the bond market is wrong because rates going To 4% and that is almost an entire 50/50 split in the Barclays survey Extraordinarily, so right okay. Just thinking ultimate depends. Do you believe the Fed has got the ability? the world’s most powerful central bank To avoid what Europe and Japan have done and I think the answer is potentially. Yes Okay, why because I think they’ve got hundreds of basis points Right or in the reserve currency Rowell the reserve currency literally through its fluctuations creates inflation and deflation I don’t believe that because I’m not a monetarist so I don’t believe in any of that. Okay? Well, no history – if you go and pull up a chart May of the dollar index against US CPI With in a downward trend in you know channel because we have disinflation I believe that this inflation since they collectivize land in the UK in the 1600s, right? That you’ve had Disinflation but the fact of the matter is is within that disinflation cycles of the dollar utterly dictate what happens to us inflation? so the fact that we’ve had any sodding inflation since 2016 given how strong the dollar has been is purely testimony to the power of fiscal spending now My bet is the Fed can weaken that dollar now, they might screw the Europeans and the Japanese in the process but tough shit Okay My bet is they can export deflation to those guys In the short term that will start the dollar weakening as you get towards the election Okay my bear is certainly for the Democrats of winning We’re looking at mmm tea Okay, that will further weaken the dollar and fish it will unleash a wave of fiscal spending which will be highly inflationary judging by what Trump’s just done and come 2023 Okay, which is a long way away Right a long long way away even 2020 the election is a long long way away become 2023 the demographics actually start to move in favor of Increased spending as the Millennials hit the peak of their earnings that provided as an economy So, you know that the point is is do I want to bet that the Fed? Right here right now fails do I think they might cock it up a bit then they might get it, right? Yes I think that’s entirely possible. They might underestimate how much they’ve got a cut but eventually they will get it and then In that environment I want to own tangible assets for the next five years six years, okay I want to own gold and platinum and or do I want to bet bet that they’ve actually failed and You’ve got they moved into Japan in Europe and they can’t do any thinking there is no inflation Right, and then I want to own growth stocks. And what’s interesting is if you look at the chart, I don’t agree Why okay because with with an aging population and a baby boomer population us to divest themselves of assets as Yields, get down to one percent and they’ve retired and hit 70 years old I mean the last thing is going to happen is growth stocks. I think in that scenario that you described Gold and gold works remember look growth stocks work And I’m saying gold. I’m not arguing against gold, right but growth stocks work when nothing else is growing. So Netflix Nvidia Amazon uber lyft right those things live off cheap money So when you look at the ratio of the S&P growth index If that were the case Julian then in Europe where there has been negative interest rates and Japan for the best part of a decade Growth stocks would be at all-time highs. There are no growth stocks made. There are no growth In the US. No, there are growth stocks and they’re still not at all-time highs Okay, so there’s two things that go on there’s one thing that happens first off in Europe and the first thing in Europe is that they have asset latch asset matching regulations in terms of assets and liabilities So if you are a pension fund in Europe You are forced if you have a 30 year duration liability to buy a 30 year bond against it Okay So that’s why most of the money from QA has gone into the bond market in Europe and not in to the equity market Okay, because they literally are Legislative forced and that is something that doesn’t happen here in the United States. Okay So no US pension fund will be buying a negative yielding bond, which the Germans are forced to do, right? The second thing is when you know, I had an interesting conversation with all my equity clients and he said look He said I look at the US market. He’s brutally bloody expensive Right. It’s brutally expensive. But when I look at the top 20 firms in the world That I want to own two of them are European and both of those European firms that I do want to own a private lego and IKEA There’s no where’s the Facebook? Where’s the Amazon? Where’s their Netflix? Like there’s none of those growth stocks? There’s none of those things that have got 20 50 percent growth momentum Okay, in terms of revenue growth now you could argue there any profits that’s another issue Okay, but the point is is those growth stocks are here in the US and by the way if I’m right about Rates ultimately albeit only nominal bond yields rising Okay, those growth stocks will underperform and the value stocks that can raise pricing that don’t have to borrow as much money actually Outperform on a relative basis. So right here right now. I suggest that people go and look at a chart of platinum versus SGX which is the SP growth index, right? so this is the stuff with all these high flyers in and you look at the ratio and you take you back to The mid nineties and what you will find. Is that the ratio between Platinum and growth stocks hit a high in 99 and a high which we also clipped in September October of last year at the highs of all the fangs. Okay. It is subsequently tried to come back to that high Okay, and maybe we’re going to just blow right through it But if you blow right through it growl You are betting that the dollar is so strong You are betting that the Fed has failed and they’ve gone down the route of the BOJ and the ECB and rates you know 10-year bond yields, like in your scenario 50 basis points, and then there is no then these metals don’t actually work right growth stocks outperform because funding is just a few C then you’ve got Lift 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0. Right. The only thing that’s growing is Things that could just borrow shit to money and generate revenue by bowing shitless put a different scenario to you the reason that The u.s. Saw growth in some areas Speculative froth versus Europe and Japan is the very structure of the pension system So the pension system in Europe is a the people older and Japan is older than that. They put their money Into fixed income because you had to match the asset and the liability. Okay. Great so now you’re going to the US which had the younger population and You are going to take people out of The pension pool I they’re not going adding equity. They’re going to be redeeming equity So it is almost impossible when you’re shrinking the largest pool on earth of growth capital Then it’s almost impossible for growth stocks to continue to rise Now even with interest rates going lower the actual pool of capital that’s available For all of the VC industry the private equity industry is the baby boomer pension But much of this is going to have them go into some sort of annuity payment and it becomes really hard for these people when Interest rates are at one go to one percent Because somehow they don’t have enough money to retire, but they can’t invest money because they’ve retired So you end up having to have a massive? Crimp on consumption where people have to spend less. There’s no other choice and I don’t see anything but an equity market that then gets caught in a Cyclical sideways trading range for twenty years until that’s resolved. Okay. So look that’s not impossible All right. I’m not arguing. I don’t necessarily agree with your demographic story But that idea that you front-loaded the equity market and it doesn’t perform brilliantly from here Wow. All okay is Actually my base case, right? I I think I don’t think the growth stocks do well Okay in that environment I’m talking about because I’m talking about the late 60s All right in the late 60s in the early 60s the equity market and the bond mark don’t even brilliantly. Well, okay positive returns everything sexy Everything’s good. Right you do like 80% 70 80 percent in four years in the equity market. Okay policy error Number one that the Fed commits is you get this big fiscal stimulus just like Trump did just that Back then it was done by Johnson. You overcook the economy. The Fed doesn’t realize the danger They’re slow to react you get some inflation the bond market sells off just like we saw from 2016 Okay, they then get super tough They overhaul kit like the equity market shits the bed just like we saw at the end of last year But then back off and they’re super dovey Okay, and they catch the economy early and they never let it Truly fall out of bed. Now you could argue that. Maybe they can’t do it I certainly not sure at this stage right here right now may that they are Dovie enough Okay to guarantee that the dollar falls and and we keep this equity game going But my bet is they will get there whether they need a little scare first They will get there because we’ve just been told that punting the cycle is their number one priority But it always is it always is it always is because growth and inflation Unemployment inflation is there to chill Monday? So they’re there then by definition Their job is to keep the cycle going, but they’ve only managed to do that twice in history 1996 and 1984 now as 1966-67 they did it for two years Yeah, they didn’t have you know, it was an entirely different monetary system at that point cuz it wasn’t but the gold-backed currency You know, you don’t you don’t have Fed Funds rates, for example, so it’s a very different system But okay maybe that but then that’s three out of sixteen Recessions where the Fed cut rates only three times did not go to recession so the probability of them getting ahead of the curve is Whatever three have 16 I look I just think they’re cognizant. I think the dollar is is The dollar back in the 60s what didn’t even exist or I didn’t have for you fighting to your point, you know so I think the ability to weaken the dollar is a new I Think that’s actually adds to their ability to save the cycle here in the US and create Inflation which means higher nominal GDP growth because that’s ultimately the endgame to me so then why Julian did not manage to weaken the dollar in 2000 2001 2002 2003 When they’re cutting like crazy Why did the dollar not weak and it went up dollar from 2002 to 2004 fell 15 percent? So here’s the thing if if Rowell to your point We haven’t had that last bit of the dollar move is what I would call the risk-off dollar move, right? That’s when the Nasdaq was blowing up Okay started in 2000 and then it rolled into the SP in September of 2000 then it rolled into the Dow in May of 2001 right? And then then we all moved into recession and the dollar kept going up because everything was bloody imploding and Everything was getting sucked back to the epicenter Yeah, and that was a 13 percent rally 14 percentage points pretty significant. If we haven’t seen the risk-off dollar rally, mate then you’re absolutely bloody right Treasury yields are going to Yeah, who knows right 50 basis points, okay, you’ll get you’ll be right if we haven’t seen that now I don’t think We’re gonna get that I’m I haven’t pulled the trigger on the trade yet. I’m long gold and gold by the way We’ll do like shit if you get a risk oft on a rally of that magnitude, okay? But I haven’t pulled the trigger Yet, but I’m looking for an opportunity for the dollar to naturally slide into its next down cycle because if you not use You know Rowell the dollar is a very simple beast it starts up here It falls, it rallies less than the previous high it falls. It rallies it falls It’s rally and we are at the top of the third rally that we’ve had in the dollar since 1972 Okay, if you look at the cycle about now is typically when the dollar would weaken But do we have those conditions? We don’t know yet mate, okay We don’t know. I’m I’m looking at it though, and I’m personally I’m gagging to sell the dollar I mean I see I mean obviously, you know Your snare oh is the one that would keep me up at night because it is rational and it’s real and it’s it’s a risk to my View, I love how you say rational So what yours is rational what you know, I know but no I’m saying they’re both rational points of view and they both have precedent both historically and And theoretically so this it makes it very difficult this is why it’s an interesting discussion because the market is having this discussion Kerr and People don’t know and you know, I see both sides of this and I understand that the dollar could weaken from here Do I see that as a risk now? I have a much lower probability of that than you do With the rate one. Of course, I see the other other side and we just assigned different probabilities, but what’s super interesting is the markets having this exact debate and we are having this exact debate and you know, it’s a it’s a honest and meaningful debate because nobody really knows and until something moves and I think there’s something is the dollar you can’t really Say it’s happening or not, correct? But I don’t think having said that we both basically at this point are out of our lungs in the bond market Betting on some sort of backup in bond yields. You see it as Short-term I see it potentially is a bit bigger and we’re both like gold and also, you know Yeah, both like gold and I’m I can see that the dollar might pull back on the narrative a 50 basis point sell the dollar But I can’t get comfortable getting long dollars still And I can’t get comfortable taking a structural short dollar for the reasons. I’ve explained so it kind of stuck and I’m trading it and I’m waiting and we’re waiting and I think we will know a lot not my next month, but probably by the month after I think by the end of the summer I Totally agree with you. I think by the end of the summer we are going to know Whether the weakness that we’ve seen in these p.m. Eyes vowel which both you and I’ve called okay is real in other words, the true underlying economy is fucked or Whether there’s some exaggeration in those because of the trade Disruption it’s either 2015 or it’s 2001 yeah, or it’s oh, well, maybe we’re 2006. We’re just about to go into 2007, right? That is the the we’re really are toast okay, we’re toast guys and We’re out of ammo and then the global reset is coming, you know a lot quicker than we thought and which case stocks are going to absolutely bloody shank and You’re going to get You know some you’re gonna get a OC as the next Democratic president in 2020 god help us Or we’re not No, I mean, I think that’s I think the thing is opposition is fair, mate I think by the end of the summer we will know I think I think you’re right. I know you know and Yeah, and it’s gonna be with that cheery thought– yeah we can sign off but it’s good because this is the debate This is the only debate it’s recession or no recession And what does it mean that that is all that it comes down to and it probably as we’ve always said Probably comes down to the dollar making its choice for us, you know to to bark It’s the bond market in the equity market are both betting on cuts but they both see radically different outcomes and the only decider to break that tie It has to be the dollar. Yeah, and I’m interested that commodities are siding with the With the Bond market right now so it feels like it’s kind of moving to one side of the ship Where there’s only equities and credit on the other side, but that’s equities in credit. There’s a multitrillion-dollar market there got a different view we’ll have to see I would Just get people to watch on your credit observation model There was we’ve seen two quite interesting credit events So the first one has been this and the Texas fund h2i That was apparently invested in super liquid stuff Now in fairness, they haven’t had to close the fun to withdrawals, but they’ve had huge draw downs But the second one was a fund actually in the UK Which many people may not have heard about called Woodford Yes. Now this guy as you know was you know, really a superstar at Invesco I think the day he less Invesco the stock drops 7% right? So he’s this guy was the real deal now what he did was he was running an income fund based around the equity market and Initially, at least he was invested in pretty liquid stuff but interestingly In early 2016 as the BOJ launched nerve and crashed as we’ve both discussed Global bond yields and returns across anything with any sort of income this guy increasingly was forced to go on to the risk spectrum and he went into Small caps and micro caps to get yield now Obviously that is a payoff where he’s trading returns against liquidity But to me the biggest lesson of both of these now you could be the super bear and say oh shit Two funds going belly-up right reminds me of the bear stearns fund in I think it was Juno seven Okay that way and Dex Cyril whatever. It wasn’t blowing the Texas it wasn’t it was BMP Remember the BMP funds that went in August and you could say that’s it game over. Here we go the biggest actually inference I will say and this is Significantly with credit these two funds in the scheme of things are bloody minnows Right, they are tiny and if they both are in trouble because of they can’t liquidate assets What happens if you’re invested in pinkos or you know one of those other household names Credit fund when those go down if We do not get the growth route if we do not punt this cycle If these little funds have to gate and Woodford has gated right they’ve stopped withdrawals What makes you think you’re gonna get out? over these supertanker funds Yeah Though wrote that whole article about the Doom loop that I’ve released the whole GMI Article because I thought was so important it was about this and it is a disaster waiting to happen so we’ll talk about the credit thing another day because we’ve been I think we’ve been talking for about 50 minutes now Oh, Crapping on for a long time. The one thing I did want to add. Is that for everybody? We’ve had a lot of feedback about wanting to have clear idea of position so there’s a couple of changes we’ve made for macro insiders one is we’ve removed any references to positions from our principal works a global macro investor and mi2 partners for Julian so we don’t confuse positions because Those come with different frameworks and different timings and it gets very confusing So our trade recommendations come only in our in focuses or our flash updates at the end of each month There’ll be now a separate piece to show our positions and they’ll be split by which is Julian’s positions Which are mine so it should become much clearer and there’s some performance numbers against those as well Just to make it as clear as possible for each other because it is getting complicated and confusing And we want to make it clear for everybody because as we go into this kind of very macro environment, you know We need to be make it as simple as possible for people Yes, and I think we did that on our last it was asked the first one I think it was yes When we said what we’ve done in gold what we’ve done in 80 X Y what we’ve done in TLT and I must admit Even for me and you know what it’s like maybe you’re running and drowning doing a million different things It’s super useful to have that so we really hope that all Everyone will benefit I am incredibly excited still about macro because this discussion is going to get resolved Over the rest of this year, so it’s gonna be a hell of a macro year coming up Julian brilliant to speak to you Let’s wait and see the little of battle commence. But let’s have a little bit of a summer break first I’ll have a point on it, mate Exactly and it’ll either be a pint in a nice restaurant cuz the world would be saved or I’d be in the gutter Well, you know It goes either way it’s either way. All right mate brilliant Cheers

100 Comments

  • Reply John L August 17, 2019 at 5:42 am

    Thanks gentlemen, very interesting conversation.

  • Reply andrew ansari August 17, 2019 at 6:01 am

    This is what i've worked out buy GEZ0 eurodollar trade. Lets assume fed goes to zero by december 2020 . This is the right trade ? please comment if your in the know on Eurodollar trades.

  • Reply The Franklin August 17, 2019 at 6:04 am

    LOL @ the cushion on Julian's couch.

  • Reply 2kings3queens August 17, 2019 at 6:21 am

    Julian is smoking crack
    I say that jokingly

  • Reply Eric Wedin August 17, 2019 at 6:24 am

    The world is so complex, everything is interdependent and economy, being very much based on human behaviour (not a science), presents a really chaothic and unpredictable environment. Even for the sharpest of minds, apparently.

  • Reply Huawei Apple August 17, 2019 at 7:13 am

    What a valuable Channel

  • Reply Kay Bass August 17, 2019 at 7:21 am

    "Complex?" Simple answers to complicated questions. WAR and fiat currency collapse due to the actions of those in power. Psalms 46: 4-6.

  • Reply Wiktor Jespersen August 17, 2019 at 7:59 am

    What about dollar debt? Why would you pref to own euro? EU economy alot worse then us Look at the political situation in EU. Look at the banks in EU? Is euro a reserve currency NO. What happens to euro if eu breaks up?

  • Reply Lou Montana August 17, 2019 at 8:05 am

    We have a President who has spent over a half BILLION dollars on GOLF TRIPS, it takes NO genius to figure out we have a problem.

  • Reply g johan August 17, 2019 at 8:31 am

    Great to listen to, The World has lost fate in the Government of the USA the only allies the USA have is through extorsion not through respect it is the US military that makes USD strong. Russia is getting more and more respect in the World and most people live in ASIA there is a big shift underway. Allianz Group chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian was on CNBC and said in strong words the talk of a recession is complete nonsense so I think it will be a recession and that clip will be a highlight in the future and EL-Erian will regret this words.

  • Reply doramason August 17, 2019 at 9:15 am

    this Julian guy is so annoying. and he is also wrong.

  • Reply adam18488 August 17, 2019 at 9:21 am

    Another brilliant video, contrasting views are very insightful.

  • Reply Ronald Brumwell August 17, 2019 at 9:25 am

    I'm new to this. I love to see all the opinions. It what makes investing fun, trying to work it all out. But here is my long term view. Debt, debt, debt…. it cannot be sustained so ultimately the trade is gold, silver and something outside the banks… Bitcoin. Who cares about the short term win with this amount of disagreement and risk? Bonds, futures, options FX trades all to risky and short term in this environment. In five years in PMs the economy turns and I will buy Copper, zinc and all things needed to build infrastructure and an economy back up. Just my opinion… maybe I'm wrong but it's simple…. like me!

  • Reply Skifast August 17, 2019 at 9:42 am

    The cycle is far more powerful than the central banks.When it goes,it goes ! Given it's length and the compelling negative data,coupled with negative geo-politics,it seems highly probable Raoul is right.That said his taste in shirts is shit.

  • Reply Bart Nettle August 17, 2019 at 9:46 am

    Monetarists speculating currency trading causes a strain on the economy. Get behind the startups and look for the innovations and invention market.and find a local manufacturing market make something happen (actual work) as opposed to betting on worse case scenarios. The problem with Gold is it is not good for anything except to look at. Parking money in a storage medium doesn't create anything. Find products, promote and produce and deliver them helps the economy. Help your GDP.. It is August 17 2019 going onto 2020!

  • Reply Howard Petterson August 17, 2019 at 9:56 am

    My son is an economics student and I have been scolded for saying we're in a recession. Apparently you have to have 2 quarters of fall in the GDP with the economy for a recession

  • Reply Nachannachle August 17, 2019 at 10:09 am

    CURRENCY RESET is the word, not "recession". This is all the more probable because most "experts" are conveniently dismissing defining events like the 2015-2016 Gold-rush and the 2017-2018 Bitcoin bubble.

    But, what else can you expect from people who have strong stakes in the USD. Fed and all CBs will print more of their toilet paper currencies, but there will be nobody to use them beyond shopping at the supermarket.
    Bonds, REIT, Equities, stocks, VCs, all are walking dead for sure.

  • Reply Without Worries August 17, 2019 at 10:17 am

    Have had a look at the technical USD currency index. The chart can be found on the link below. There's both bearish and bullish indicators. Julian points out the USD rallies on the 40+ year index. The most recent rally has broken resistance, and seemingly found support on the other side, of the trend where Julian believes USD will now correct. The bearish Head & shoulders pattern would suggest a collapse, and Stochastic RSI momentum on this monthly chart is pointing southwards. So a pullback in the near term is likely. There is a massive rising wedge that does not complete until near 2030 before tanking, however. The suggests massive gains in the next 10 years. How it plays out is not known until October 2020 at the latest. I'm off the opinion it is going to fall in the near term because of the RSI only. It has has now being tested and rejected on three occasions. What is interesting is the rate of which this fall will occur. I think it is worth pointing out the chart is showing we've made higher lows for almost 10 years now and we may be about to change trend with lower highs. https://www.tradingview.com/x/EqxAyKgm/

  • Reply M K August 17, 2019 at 10:29 am

    Excellent. Love the discourse and analysis. Julian is funny too 😆 Thanks!

  • Reply Tessa Smith August 17, 2019 at 11:00 am

    Rothschild took his money out American assets last year and put them into sterling, so you know America is going to be going into a depression that will make the Great Depression seem like pocket change. What's fat frog Adelson doing with his money? That'll confirm it. Never trust Khazars.

  • Reply vernon smith August 17, 2019 at 11:44 am

    all being planed recession every one get your credit cards out keep bouncing the economy needs you. we need rock bottom recession interest rates up and start again

  • Reply Norris Masters August 17, 2019 at 12:07 pm

    Great Job Raul.
    I liked the video, even as a finance guy myself, I agree economists never agree. They give you their perspective and you make your own choice. My choice is to be 50/50 on chance of a recession. Meaning, I keep lots of cash on hand because CASH IS KING I A RECESSION! EVERY-TIME! I have deleveraged heavily to prepare for any scenario. That's what I recommend anyone to do! I invest in Bitcoin and since its not yet proven its properties in a long recession, I will not put all my cash into it! Guys, please do me a favor and keep cash on hand. I'm speaking from lots of experience here! Please note that Bitcoin will do so well if we have a financial crisis of any kind or political crisis since it's sovereign neutral! And regardless it's a long-term win!
    EDIT: After posting here, I'm watching new Bob Loukas video and he agrees with me that in a severe liquidity event like of 2007 – 2008 gold was down 40% as people sold to rush to create cash. Gold didn't act as safe heaven until 6 months later. Bitcoin will crash like crazy in this scenario but recover later. Watch it at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHjZ6p8VQZ4

  • Reply Felicia Wichrowski August 17, 2019 at 12:19 pm

    eventually we might get AOC as a president, if climate does not kill us, so kinda Fuck You guy.

  • Reply rumco August 17, 2019 at 12:38 pm

    I can always count on MMTs to get the diagnosis right but their medication is pure poison that made of the same stuff that made you sick.

  • Reply yellow1one August 17, 2019 at 12:54 pm

    Very interesting and informative views. Comical mockery accents. Danny Dyer would approve. !-)

  • Reply Barry W August 17, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Raoul Pal as a liar and fraud running a hot air marketing game. He claims to have predicted the financial crisis but that;s a lie. And now he's running a youtube channel and not managing a fund? Why? because he failed! complete con man fooling these stupid kids on JewTube.

  • Reply Michael Rexrode August 17, 2019 at 1:19 pm

    Rate cuts are like changing the oil in a car that's running out of gas.

  • Reply Max Smith August 17, 2019 at 1:28 pm

    After considering things a lot, my conclusion is the dollar will likely go up, at least in the short term, as there is no where else for capital to go when the shit hits the fan. Buffet has a lot of his portfolio in the dollar, so that should tell you something.

  • Reply Riedo Denise August 17, 2019 at 1:34 pm

    Absolutely great discussion!!! Thank you both therefore!!
    Swiss 61, Paraguay

  • Reply Max Mac August 17, 2019 at 1:34 pm

    how can you be a money manager and not get your teeth sorted i will never know.

  • Reply Chris Tyson August 17, 2019 at 1:38 pm

    Great video, thanks for posting. If you go to whalewisdom and have a look at the 13F filings for all the major players (Druckenmiller, Bridgewater, Horseman etc.) they've all recently put on buys in the tech growth stocks and gold.

  • Reply jack phillips August 17, 2019 at 1:45 pm

    Re: The GDP: In addition to what Tenebrarum states, please note that government transfer payments including Medicaid, Medicare, disability payments, and SNAP (previously called food stamps), all contribute to GDP. Nothing is “produced” by those transfer payments. They are not even funded. As a result, national debt rises every year. And that debt adds to GDP. Manufacturing's Share of GDP is
    Hugely Underestimated. Thus, in addition to Baum's excellent comments on the the cyclical nature of manufacturing, manufacturing's share of GDP as attributed by economists is simply wrong.

    Google how the NEW GDP number is calculated, what non-sense. Since December the S&P has risen 25%. A 10% rise in the market adds 1% to the GDP so a 25% rise adds 2-1/2% to the GDP. So the GDP was 3.2% and 2.5% of that was from the FED printing money and feeding the stock market. How stupid is this?

  • Reply Max Mac August 17, 2019 at 1:52 pm

    chasing growth down the toilet bowl

  • Reply Timothy Michael August 17, 2019 at 2:17 pm

    I'm in the USA and so I put everything have to invest into UGLD, USLV, TMF to prepare for the coming rate cuts and eventual negative rates with QE. If you look at all the other countries in the world these have all been great safe havens, so, since the US began this new cycle in December of 2018 they should be a safe place to store US dollars, precious metals and bonds. Equities will rise too but it's very unlikely that they will outperform gold and bonds in terms of real world value. (I also run many Bitcoin miners off of solar power to obtain crypto as needed for daily expenditures, as well as 2 rental properties which have 10 rooms for rent.)

  • Reply Roland Braun August 17, 2019 at 2:51 pm

    Raoul is right !!Powell will lower rates for another 75 basis points this year forcing Europe to go into deeper negative territory !! The choice is equities or bonds for both experts but l would only hold miners of gold and silver !! The US dollar will remain relatively strong compared to all other currencies and remain within the 92 to 102 index parameters !! What will push gold up will be lower rates ,money printing by the Fed ,inflationary expectations, geo- political conflicts and MMT ( assuming a Democrat in the White House in 2020 ) .

  • Reply sazajac77z August 17, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    Great discussion! Enjoyed it!
    Just wish I understood it…

  • Reply No Fix August 17, 2019 at 3:14 pm

    Very intelligent discussion. Congrats.

  • Reply aaa rrr August 17, 2019 at 3:31 pm

    Why not be long IEF or TLT? If the US is on it's way to zero or even negative wouldn't any bond on the long end of the curve be a winning trade? Did I miss something?

  • Reply stephen cohen August 17, 2019 at 3:46 pm

    Stephen Cohen quite a complicated and tricky state of affairs

  • Reply Jaime T August 17, 2019 at 5:15 pm

    The dollar will not sell off for as long as the US bond market remains far more attractive than most of its major counterparts, especially Europe’s.

  • Reply Nicholaus Hensley August 17, 2019 at 5:19 pm

    Although Real Vision wasnt intended to have these Global Macro videos, I really like them. You should continue to add this kind of content on the channel. Great work!

  • Reply junfan11 August 17, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

  • Reply Force Majeure August 17, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    excellent debate, thanks

  • Reply Thomas Kauser August 17, 2019 at 5:33 pm

    Impaired corporate bonds are like finding diamonds on the beach!

  • Reply Joseph Bergel August 17, 2019 at 7:24 pm

    I know I’m not a pro … but one slight factor that was never in any I the recessions before was the trump factor … a nationalist populist president hated by both political class, parties and media… not to mention the first president to campaign on currency manipulation and or devaluation… so I’m sure he went into this knowing how to affect the dollar other then interest rates and the fed action positive when they know the real story ect … start backing on another 4 years and please don’t think anything I’ve said about trump is in admiration … it is a phenomenon on the equation the markets have had to attempt to adapt to … tweets equal trade wars these days …

    I’m an expatriate living in Canada btw… so the accents are the same as many of my friends too who argue macro economics for fun …

    Cheers and thanks for the channel!!!

  • Reply Sunil Patel August 17, 2019 at 7:25 pm

    I am just a retailer but I have been so confused why the USD has kept rising–I am so glad to hear these two professionals equally focused on the rising USD. I thought it was just me.

  • Reply Amit Dixit August 17, 2019 at 7:31 pm

    We are already in a recession or on the Verge. Confirmation from various markets will come by end of October OR after U.S Election, till then they are trying manage it while labeling it as a "slow down."

  • Reply jimmy the cactus August 17, 2019 at 8:00 pm

    I like Raoul's T-shirt, looks like Ernie's from Sesame Street!

  • Reply Nick Notte August 17, 2019 at 8:30 pm

    I've been Killin the oil and natural gas trades. Even a few options on dust. Plenty of money out there

  • Reply Melodie LovesJesus August 17, 2019 at 8:33 pm

    did president trump give in to China and stopped the trade war in order to save the stock market?

  • Reply Joseph Carter August 17, 2019 at 8:47 pm

    And in related news, the stewards on the Titanic rearrange the deck chairs.

  • Reply Raghavendran G August 17, 2019 at 10:09 pm

    Too much debt, not much growth, bad demographics plus de-globalisation means that Raoul is right than the other guy.

  • Reply Steven O'Connell August 17, 2019 at 10:12 pm

    Great banter and better insights in this extraordinary conversation. Thanks for having it, double thanks for sharing it.

  • Reply Steven O'Connell August 17, 2019 at 10:27 pm

    Update video of this same interview please!

  • Reply The Macronical August 17, 2019 at 10:47 pm

    The only way the dollar sells off is if Trump overrides the Fed, and direct the treasury to intervene in FX markets. Dollar liquidity is tight, no way around that fact.

  • Reply Roman Tivyan August 17, 2019 at 11:48 pm

    Julian seems to not follow the BoA chart of fed funds rate vs time which shows the descending trendline that clearly spells how much less room the fed has to impact the economy now and the chart of unemployment vs recession. Also that AOC is too young to run for president. However she’s a guaranteed winner for 2024 once we’ve been in a depression as everyone will be screaming for entitlements and a bigger government.

  • Reply Roman Tivyan August 17, 2019 at 11:49 pm

    Julian seems to not follow the BoA chart of fed funds rate vs time which shows the descending trendline that clearly spells how much less room the fed has to impact the economy now and the chart of unemployment vs recession. Also that AOC is too young to run for president. However she’s a guaranteed winner for 2024 once we’ve been in a depression as everyone will be screaming for entitlements and a bigger government.

  • Reply John Jones August 18, 2019 at 12:11 am

    My hope is they never get there and go find another job

  • Reply John Jones August 18, 2019 at 12:13 am

    what do you mean the dollar wasn't there in the sixities. There was 1000 dollar bills you could get from the bank. Can't them today!

  • Reply NewmiesDad August 18, 2019 at 12:40 am

    This is hilarious because it's NOT EITHER/OR…. WOOOT WOOOT Alert Alert! Both the bond 'market' and stock 'market' can be wrong… it doesn't take more than 5 seconds to come to this conclusion – which I believe is the correct conclusion.

  • Reply Nick Myakovsky August 18, 2019 at 1:20 am

    The only way global recession/ depression can be avoided is if the clever bastards at the top redefine the meaning of the word. And more importantly, the fundamental metrics of macro-economics are so drastically revamped, that tent dwelling, starvation and plague for the (m)asses are measured as an incredibly positive index. At street level, it will be a calamity regardless of the color of the shades you're wearing.

  • Reply Bite the Bullet August 18, 2019 at 1:25 am

    gold wins in both cases….in gold we trust. how can this guy deny demographics…

  • Reply Weslataw August 18, 2019 at 3:03 am

    It is a good idea to short a dollar. Correction is coming sooner or later

  • Reply Vladimir Moushkov August 18, 2019 at 4:37 am

    I love this conversation – thanks to the both participants for sharing!

  • Reply SlyGRC August 18, 2019 at 8:46 am

    Globalist propaganda! The economy is doing GREAT! They are trying to control the narrative to create a recession! They HATE Trump that bad that they are willing to crash the economy to get rid of him.

  • Reply Duncan McKeown August 18, 2019 at 11:36 am

    The bottom line is that you cannot taper a Ponzi scheme…The Fed cannot increase interest rates to 4% without crashing the whole conjured money party.

  • Reply D. BOON August 18, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    Gaijin Keep shorting (TLT) all the way to 0.00% from the JGB/Bund Bond King. The next round of QE the US interest rate curve goes the way of Japan and Europe… ZIRP then NIRP. ✅

  • Reply Douglas S. Noble August 18, 2019 at 4:08 pm

    Trump is steering toward a take down of the Central Bank Debt system. He will be reelected, call for an Audit of the Central bank to disclose the corruption and ultimate destruction of the Fed here in U.S. and Europe. The Death of Fiat. We will go to a gold (and Bitcoin Based system) and get a realistic and fundamental fiscal system. And Mate…The Arizona was a Battle Ship in the Pacific and was no where near Normandy. Duetche Bank is going to go to Hell with their Derivatives, and will be Hitler in the bunker and blow their brains out. Once again, the German people will be saddled with the bill. As for the Arizona, it and the Atom Bomb won't be needed as Central Bank in Japan will also blow up with their phony economy. China is melting down.

  • Reply The Nose Goblin August 18, 2019 at 6:26 pm

    Great discussion. But man. You missed out on the TLT since this discussion

  • Reply The Nose Goblin August 18, 2019 at 6:35 pm

    Is it time for a long on the TBT now or wait a bit and see?

  • Reply Seth Lievense August 18, 2019 at 6:52 pm

    The superlatives and cozying up doesn't build up a stronger argument, mate!

  • Reply Jon Foster August 18, 2019 at 10:21 pm

    there's not a market out there that isn't rigged, manipulated and insider traded upon, and the derivates market is just insane… there is no 'real economy', the way this insane system is set up is designed to fail and to periodically enrich a few in the process

  • Reply Burnt Toast August 19, 2019 at 4:25 am

    This is all Jesuit Masonic nwo plot to single world currency region and army and hunger games for us

  • Reply Heather 22 August 19, 2019 at 4:47 am

    I can taste it, well said.

  • Reply Heather 22 August 19, 2019 at 4:48 am

    Yup gold miners!! I have WPM, GOLD, AEM, and NEM.

  • Reply Chris Lemieux August 19, 2019 at 8:17 am

    I love Julian's face when Raoul wanted to argue there's growth stocks in Europe.

    Quick name one…

    Swiss National Bank?

  • Reply Donald Trump Uncensored August 19, 2019 at 9:08 am

    I think I can now explain why the dollar must go down. I think its all connected to Trump's tax cut. He basically injected something like $1.5 trillion into the market. I guess that people from around the world invested their money in US shares to surf the wave of Trump's tax cut and then will leave when the US market starts to crash. Of course if the dollar goes up from here… I will have egg on my face!

  • Reply Art Rahman August 19, 2019 at 1:24 pm

    Foul mouth London bankers

  • Reply D N August 19, 2019 at 2:13 pm

    Bond market 40 trillion or equities market 30 trillion. If bond market blows up, corporations including USA corp dies. If equity market blows up, j6p gets upset and threatens not to vote for scumbag politician again. Guess which the elite will choose.

  • Reply malthus101 August 19, 2019 at 11:25 pm

    We're having this debate… the market is having this debate.. you could say, it's a mass-debate.

  • Reply John SorboroMD August 19, 2019 at 11:57 pm

    Does Julian REALLY think we will see rising interest rates? Is he kidding 4%? Rates are going negative everywhere. Regardless this debate is absolutely brilliant on both sides. Raoul thank you for doing this. It is such a public service

  • Reply dfb August 20, 2019 at 3:44 am

    I enjoyed this debate.thank you both. We need more of these thoughts

  • Reply onceANexile August 20, 2019 at 5:43 am

    I can't stand australians.

  • Reply Eksath de Silva August 20, 2019 at 7:32 am

    Hahaha, shorting the Dollar no, the Dollar is the last man standing – 1985 is here again – the Dollar is going to rise – there lies the problem – it's going to get to STRONG!

  • Reply Takis Panos August 20, 2019 at 7:45 am

    Top chaps…..top chat!!!

  • Reply How To Sand A Floor August 20, 2019 at 12:10 pm

    I love when Julian is disagreeing so he throws in a ‘mate’ to be polite 😂

  • Reply Joe April August 21, 2019 at 12:35 am

    what about silver?

  • Reply Lea Pustetto August 21, 2019 at 12:46 am

    Your right raoul. Im on your side

  • Reply Ryan Goulding August 21, 2019 at 2:30 am

    This my new mainstay channel . So glad your content is out there to give to those who still need some education . So much great info you all are putting out

  • Reply Maria das Santos August 21, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    Spirited discussion.

  • Reply Daniel Cid August 21, 2019 at 9:27 pm

    Hell of a debate, can't hardly wait for the end of summer!

  • Reply Jairo Linares August 22, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    Let's leave this right clear. World GDP is 100 but World debt is 350 right? So, the world is bankrupt. How the world is gonna survive of nukes?

  • Reply Hckytwn August 23, 2019 at 3:57 am

    Amazing discussion!!! Who’s right? Look at their left hand. That’s Best tell of who understands risk/reward and profit/cost.

  • Reply Winston Templet August 25, 2019 at 3:00 am

    Most on here are much smarter than me so I looking for some advice. I’m sitting on quite a bit of silver, do you think when gold moves that silver will move at the same rate?

  • Reply Frank William August 25, 2019 at 6:29 pm

    Julian is WRONG about the coming recession

  • Reply Stadtpark90 August 29, 2019 at 12:43 am

    42:41 lol

  • Reply Tom Lucas August 29, 2019 at 6:41 am

    This guy julian ? Dont worry, never crises, economy will boom in an aging demografic

  • Reply Cc Uu September 2, 2019 at 12:07 am

    Prefer the interview format. This just sounds like CNBC "buzz" to get people active in markets-any kind of market, for commissions, for fear.

  • Reply Ken P September 2, 2019 at 2:42 pm

    Here's a question. What if the G7 goes negative rates and the US goes dove but stays at +1%>

  • Reply S.Y B September 4, 2019 at 2:46 pm

    WoW 😲 awesome discussion!

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