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🔴 What Do Experts Say About Recession? Raoul Pal & Julian Brigden Debate | Recession Watch

September 5, 2019

100 Comments

  • Reply John L August 17, 2019 at 5:42 am

    Thanks gentlemen, very interesting conversation.

  • Reply andrew ansari August 17, 2019 at 6:01 am

    This is what i've worked out buy GEZ0 eurodollar trade. Lets assume fed goes to zero by december 2020 . This is the right trade ? please comment if your in the know on Eurodollar trades.

  • Reply The Franklin August 17, 2019 at 6:04 am

    LOL @ the cushion on Julian's couch.

  • Reply 2kings3queens August 17, 2019 at 6:21 am

    Julian is smoking crack
    I say that jokingly

  • Reply Eric Wedin August 17, 2019 at 6:24 am

    The world is so complex, everything is interdependent and economy, being very much based on human behaviour (not a science), presents a really chaothic and unpredictable environment. Even for the sharpest of minds, apparently.

  • Reply Huawei Apple August 17, 2019 at 7:13 am

    What a valuable Channel

  • Reply Kay Bass August 17, 2019 at 7:21 am

    "Complex?" Simple answers to complicated questions. WAR and fiat currency collapse due to the actions of those in power. Psalms 46: 4-6.

  • Reply Wiktor Jespersen August 17, 2019 at 7:59 am

    What about dollar debt? Why would you pref to own euro? EU economy alot worse then us Look at the political situation in EU. Look at the banks in EU? Is euro a reserve currency NO. What happens to euro if eu breaks up?

  • Reply Lou Montana August 17, 2019 at 8:05 am

    We have a President who has spent over a half BILLION dollars on GOLF TRIPS, it takes NO genius to figure out we have a problem.

  • Reply g johan August 17, 2019 at 8:31 am

    Great to listen to, The World has lost fate in the Government of the USA the only allies the USA have is through extorsion not through respect it is the US military that makes USD strong. Russia is getting more and more respect in the World and most people live in ASIA there is a big shift underway. Allianz Group chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian was on CNBC and said in strong words the talk of a recession is complete nonsense so I think it will be a recession and that clip will be a highlight in the future and EL-Erian will regret this words.

  • Reply doramason August 17, 2019 at 9:15 am

    this Julian guy is so annoying. and he is also wrong.

  • Reply adam18488 August 17, 2019 at 9:21 am

    Another brilliant video, contrasting views are very insightful.

  • Reply Ronald Brumwell August 17, 2019 at 9:25 am

    I'm new to this. I love to see all the opinions. It what makes investing fun, trying to work it all out. But here is my long term view. Debt, debt, debt…. it cannot be sustained so ultimately the trade is gold, silver and something outside the banks… Bitcoin. Who cares about the short term win with this amount of disagreement and risk? Bonds, futures, options FX trades all to risky and short term in this environment. In five years in PMs the economy turns and I will buy Copper, zinc and all things needed to build infrastructure and an economy back up. Just my opinion… maybe I'm wrong but it's simple…. like me!

  • Reply Skifast August 17, 2019 at 9:42 am

    The cycle is far more powerful than the central banks.When it goes,it goes ! Given it's length and the compelling negative data,coupled with negative geo-politics,it seems highly probable Raoul is right.That said his taste in shirts is shit.

  • Reply Bart Nettle August 17, 2019 at 9:46 am

    Monetarists speculating currency trading causes a strain on the economy. Get behind the startups and look for the innovations and invention market.and find a local manufacturing market make something happen (actual work) as opposed to betting on worse case scenarios. The problem with Gold is it is not good for anything except to look at. Parking money in a storage medium doesn't create anything. Find products, promote and produce and deliver them helps the economy. Help your GDP.. It is August 17 2019 going onto 2020!

  • Reply Howard Petterson August 17, 2019 at 9:56 am

    My son is an economics student and I have been scolded for saying we're in a recession. Apparently you have to have 2 quarters of fall in the GDP with the economy for a recession

  • Reply Nachannachle August 17, 2019 at 10:09 am

    CURRENCY RESET is the word, not "recession". This is all the more probable because most "experts" are conveniently dismissing defining events like the 2015-2016 Gold-rush and the 2017-2018 Bitcoin bubble.

    But, what else can you expect from people who have strong stakes in the USD. Fed and all CBs will print more of their toilet paper currencies, but there will be nobody to use them beyond shopping at the supermarket.
    Bonds, REIT, Equities, stocks, VCs, all are walking dead for sure.

  • Reply Without Worries August 17, 2019 at 10:17 am

    Have had a look at the technical USD currency index. The chart can be found on the link below. There's both bearish and bullish indicators. Julian points out the USD rallies on the 40+ year index. The most recent rally has broken resistance, and seemingly found support on the other side, of the trend where Julian believes USD will now correct. The bearish Head & shoulders pattern would suggest a collapse, and Stochastic RSI momentum on this monthly chart is pointing southwards. So a pullback in the near term is likely. There is a massive rising wedge that does not complete until near 2030 before tanking, however. The suggests massive gains in the next 10 years. How it plays out is not known until October 2020 at the latest. I'm off the opinion it is going to fall in the near term because of the RSI only. It has has now being tested and rejected on three occasions. What is interesting is the rate of which this fall will occur. I think it is worth pointing out the chart is showing we've made higher lows for almost 10 years now and we may be about to change trend with lower highs. https://www.tradingview.com/x/EqxAyKgm/

  • Reply M K August 17, 2019 at 10:29 am

    Excellent. Love the discourse and analysis. Julian is funny too 😆 Thanks!

  • Reply Tessa Smith August 17, 2019 at 11:00 am

    Rothschild took his money out American assets last year and put them into sterling, so you know America is going to be going into a depression that will make the Great Depression seem like pocket change. What's fat frog Adelson doing with his money? That'll confirm it. Never trust Khazars.

  • Reply vernon smith August 17, 2019 at 11:44 am

    all being planed recession every one get your credit cards out keep bouncing the economy needs you. we need rock bottom recession interest rates up and start again

  • Reply Norris Masters August 17, 2019 at 12:07 pm

    Great Job Raul.
    I liked the video, even as a finance guy myself, I agree economists never agree. They give you their perspective and you make your own choice. My choice is to be 50/50 on chance of a recession. Meaning, I keep lots of cash on hand because CASH IS KING I A RECESSION! EVERY-TIME! I have deleveraged heavily to prepare for any scenario. That's what I recommend anyone to do! I invest in Bitcoin and since its not yet proven its properties in a long recession, I will not put all my cash into it! Guys, please do me a favor and keep cash on hand. I'm speaking from lots of experience here! Please note that Bitcoin will do so well if we have a financial crisis of any kind or political crisis since it's sovereign neutral! And regardless it's a long-term win!
    EDIT: After posting here, I'm watching new Bob Loukas video and he agrees with me that in a severe liquidity event like of 2007 – 2008 gold was down 40% as people sold to rush to create cash. Gold didn't act as safe heaven until 6 months later. Bitcoin will crash like crazy in this scenario but recover later. Watch it at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHjZ6p8VQZ4

  • Reply Felicia Wichrowski August 17, 2019 at 12:19 pm

    eventually we might get AOC as a president, if climate does not kill us, so kinda Fuck You guy.

  • Reply rumco August 17, 2019 at 12:38 pm

    I can always count on MMTs to get the diagnosis right but their medication is pure poison that made of the same stuff that made you sick.

  • Reply yellow1one August 17, 2019 at 12:54 pm

    Very interesting and informative views. Comical mockery accents. Danny Dyer would approve. !-)

  • Reply Barry W August 17, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Raoul Pal as a liar and fraud running a hot air marketing game. He claims to have predicted the financial crisis but that;s a lie. And now he's running a youtube channel and not managing a fund? Why? because he failed! complete con man fooling these stupid kids on JewTube.

  • Reply Michael Rexrode August 17, 2019 at 1:19 pm

    Rate cuts are like changing the oil in a car that's running out of gas.

  • Reply Max Smith August 17, 2019 at 1:28 pm

    After considering things a lot, my conclusion is the dollar will likely go up, at least in the short term, as there is no where else for capital to go when the shit hits the fan. Buffet has a lot of his portfolio in the dollar, so that should tell you something.

  • Reply Riedo Denise August 17, 2019 at 1:34 pm

    Absolutely great discussion!!! Thank you both therefore!!
    Swiss 61, Paraguay

  • Reply Max Mac August 17, 2019 at 1:34 pm

    how can you be a money manager and not get your teeth sorted i will never know.

  • Reply Chris Tyson August 17, 2019 at 1:38 pm

    Great video, thanks for posting. If you go to whalewisdom and have a look at the 13F filings for all the major players (Druckenmiller, Bridgewater, Horseman etc.) they've all recently put on buys in the tech growth stocks and gold.

  • Reply jack phillips August 17, 2019 at 1:45 pm

    Re: The GDP: In addition to what Tenebrarum states, please note that government transfer payments including Medicaid, Medicare, disability payments, and SNAP (previously called food stamps), all contribute to GDP. Nothing is “produced” by those transfer payments. They are not even funded. As a result, national debt rises every year. And that debt adds to GDP. Manufacturing's Share of GDP is
    Hugely Underestimated. Thus, in addition to Baum's excellent comments on the the cyclical nature of manufacturing, manufacturing's share of GDP as attributed by economists is simply wrong.

    Google how the NEW GDP number is calculated, what non-sense. Since December the S&P has risen 25%. A 10% rise in the market adds 1% to the GDP so a 25% rise adds 2-1/2% to the GDP. So the GDP was 3.2% and 2.5% of that was from the FED printing money and feeding the stock market. How stupid is this?

  • Reply Max Mac August 17, 2019 at 1:52 pm

    chasing growth down the toilet bowl

  • Reply Timothy Michael August 17, 2019 at 2:17 pm

    I'm in the USA and so I put everything have to invest into UGLD, USLV, TMF to prepare for the coming rate cuts and eventual negative rates with QE. If you look at all the other countries in the world these have all been great safe havens, so, since the US began this new cycle in December of 2018 they should be a safe place to store US dollars, precious metals and bonds. Equities will rise too but it's very unlikely that they will outperform gold and bonds in terms of real world value. (I also run many Bitcoin miners off of solar power to obtain crypto as needed for daily expenditures, as well as 2 rental properties which have 10 rooms for rent.)

  • Reply Roland Braun August 17, 2019 at 2:51 pm

    Raoul is right !!Powell will lower rates for another 75 basis points this year forcing Europe to go into deeper negative territory !! The choice is equities or bonds for both experts but l would only hold miners of gold and silver !! The US dollar will remain relatively strong compared to all other currencies and remain within the 92 to 102 index parameters !! What will push gold up will be lower rates ,money printing by the Fed ,inflationary expectations, geo- political conflicts and MMT ( assuming a Democrat in the White House in 2020 ) .

  • Reply sazajac77z August 17, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    Great discussion! Enjoyed it!
    Just wish I understood it…

  • Reply No Fix August 17, 2019 at 3:14 pm

    Very intelligent discussion. Congrats.

  • Reply aaa rrr August 17, 2019 at 3:31 pm

    Why not be long IEF or TLT? If the US is on it's way to zero or even negative wouldn't any bond on the long end of the curve be a winning trade? Did I miss something?

  • Reply stephen cohen August 17, 2019 at 3:46 pm

    Stephen Cohen quite a complicated and tricky state of affairs

  • Reply Jaime T August 17, 2019 at 5:15 pm

    The dollar will not sell off for as long as the US bond market remains far more attractive than most of its major counterparts, especially Europe’s.

  • Reply Nicholaus Hensley August 17, 2019 at 5:19 pm

    Although Real Vision wasnt intended to have these Global Macro videos, I really like them. You should continue to add this kind of content on the channel. Great work!

  • Reply junfan11 August 17, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

  • Reply Force Majeure August 17, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    excellent debate, thanks

  • Reply Thomas Kauser August 17, 2019 at 5:33 pm

    Impaired corporate bonds are like finding diamonds on the beach!

  • Reply Joseph Bergel August 17, 2019 at 7:24 pm

    I know I’m not a pro … but one slight factor that was never in any I the recessions before was the trump factor … a nationalist populist president hated by both political class, parties and media… not to mention the first president to campaign on currency manipulation and or devaluation… so I’m sure he went into this knowing how to affect the dollar other then interest rates and the fed action positive when they know the real story ect … start backing on another 4 years and please don’t think anything I’ve said about trump is in admiration … it is a phenomenon on the equation the markets have had to attempt to adapt to … tweets equal trade wars these days …

    I’m an expatriate living in Canada btw… so the accents are the same as many of my friends too who argue macro economics for fun …

    Cheers and thanks for the channel!!!

  • Reply Sunil Patel August 17, 2019 at 7:25 pm

    I am just a retailer but I have been so confused why the USD has kept rising–I am so glad to hear these two professionals equally focused on the rising USD. I thought it was just me.

  • Reply Amit Dixit August 17, 2019 at 7:31 pm

    We are already in a recession or on the Verge. Confirmation from various markets will come by end of October OR after U.S Election, till then they are trying manage it while labeling it as a "slow down."

  • Reply jimmy the cactus August 17, 2019 at 8:00 pm

    I like Raoul's T-shirt, looks like Ernie's from Sesame Street!

  • Reply Nick Notte August 17, 2019 at 8:30 pm

    I've been Killin the oil and natural gas trades. Even a few options on dust. Plenty of money out there

  • Reply Melodie LovesJesus August 17, 2019 at 8:33 pm

    did president trump give in to China and stopped the trade war in order to save the stock market?

  • Reply Joseph Carter August 17, 2019 at 8:47 pm

    And in related news, the stewards on the Titanic rearrange the deck chairs.

  • Reply Raghavendran G August 17, 2019 at 10:09 pm

    Too much debt, not much growth, bad demographics plus de-globalisation means that Raoul is right than the other guy.

  • Reply Steven O'Connell August 17, 2019 at 10:12 pm

    Great banter and better insights in this extraordinary conversation. Thanks for having it, double thanks for sharing it.

  • Reply Steven O'Connell August 17, 2019 at 10:27 pm

    Update video of this same interview please!

  • Reply The Macronical August 17, 2019 at 10:47 pm

    The only way the dollar sells off is if Trump overrides the Fed, and direct the treasury to intervene in FX markets. Dollar liquidity is tight, no way around that fact.

  • Reply Roman Tivyan August 17, 2019 at 11:48 pm

    Julian seems to not follow the BoA chart of fed funds rate vs time which shows the descending trendline that clearly spells how much less room the fed has to impact the economy now and the chart of unemployment vs recession. Also that AOC is too young to run for president. However she’s a guaranteed winner for 2024 once we’ve been in a depression as everyone will be screaming for entitlements and a bigger government.

  • Reply Roman Tivyan August 17, 2019 at 11:49 pm

    Julian seems to not follow the BoA chart of fed funds rate vs time which shows the descending trendline that clearly spells how much less room the fed has to impact the economy now and the chart of unemployment vs recession. Also that AOC is too young to run for president. However she’s a guaranteed winner for 2024 once we’ve been in a depression as everyone will be screaming for entitlements and a bigger government.

  • Reply John Jones August 18, 2019 at 12:11 am

    My hope is they never get there and go find another job

  • Reply John Jones August 18, 2019 at 12:13 am

    what do you mean the dollar wasn't there in the sixities. There was 1000 dollar bills you could get from the bank. Can't them today!

  • Reply NewmiesDad August 18, 2019 at 12:40 am

    This is hilarious because it's NOT EITHER/OR…. WOOOT WOOOT Alert Alert! Both the bond 'market' and stock 'market' can be wrong… it doesn't take more than 5 seconds to come to this conclusion – which I believe is the correct conclusion.

  • Reply Nick Myakovsky August 18, 2019 at 1:20 am

    The only way global recession/ depression can be avoided is if the clever bastards at the top redefine the meaning of the word. And more importantly, the fundamental metrics of macro-economics are so drastically revamped, that tent dwelling, starvation and plague for the (m)asses are measured as an incredibly positive index. At street level, it will be a calamity regardless of the color of the shades you're wearing.

  • Reply Bite the Bullet August 18, 2019 at 1:25 am

    gold wins in both cases….in gold we trust. how can this guy deny demographics…

  • Reply Weslataw August 18, 2019 at 3:03 am

    It is a good idea to short a dollar. Correction is coming sooner or later

  • Reply Vladimir Moushkov August 18, 2019 at 4:37 am

    I love this conversation – thanks to the both participants for sharing!

  • Reply SlyGRC August 18, 2019 at 8:46 am

    Globalist propaganda! The economy is doing GREAT! They are trying to control the narrative to create a recession! They HATE Trump that bad that they are willing to crash the economy to get rid of him.

  • Reply Duncan McKeown August 18, 2019 at 11:36 am

    The bottom line is that you cannot taper a Ponzi scheme…The Fed cannot increase interest rates to 4% without crashing the whole conjured money party.

  • Reply D. BOON August 18, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    Gaijin Keep shorting (TLT) all the way to 0.00% from the JGB/Bund Bond King. The next round of QE the US interest rate curve goes the way of Japan and Europe… ZIRP then NIRP. ✅

  • Reply Douglas S. Noble August 18, 2019 at 4:08 pm

    Trump is steering toward a take down of the Central Bank Debt system. He will be reelected, call for an Audit of the Central bank to disclose the corruption and ultimate destruction of the Fed here in U.S. and Europe. The Death of Fiat. We will go to a gold (and Bitcoin Based system) and get a realistic and fundamental fiscal system. And Mate…The Arizona was a Battle Ship in the Pacific and was no where near Normandy. Duetche Bank is going to go to Hell with their Derivatives, and will be Hitler in the bunker and blow their brains out. Once again, the German people will be saddled with the bill. As for the Arizona, it and the Atom Bomb won't be needed as Central Bank in Japan will also blow up with their phony economy. China is melting down.

  • Reply The Nose Goblin August 18, 2019 at 6:26 pm

    Great discussion. But man. You missed out on the TLT since this discussion

  • Reply The Nose Goblin August 18, 2019 at 6:35 pm

    Is it time for a long on the TBT now or wait a bit and see?

  • Reply Seth Lievense August 18, 2019 at 6:52 pm

    The superlatives and cozying up doesn't build up a stronger argument, mate!

  • Reply Jon Foster August 18, 2019 at 10:21 pm

    there's not a market out there that isn't rigged, manipulated and insider traded upon, and the derivates market is just insane… there is no 'real economy', the way this insane system is set up is designed to fail and to periodically enrich a few in the process

  • Reply Burnt Toast August 19, 2019 at 4:25 am

    This is all Jesuit Masonic nwo plot to single world currency region and army and hunger games for us

  • Reply Heather 22 August 19, 2019 at 4:47 am

    I can taste it, well said.

  • Reply Heather 22 August 19, 2019 at 4:48 am

    Yup gold miners!! I have WPM, GOLD, AEM, and NEM.

  • Reply Chris Lemieux August 19, 2019 at 8:17 am

    I love Julian's face when Raoul wanted to argue there's growth stocks in Europe.

    Quick name one…

    Swiss National Bank?

  • Reply Donald Trump Uncensored August 19, 2019 at 9:08 am

    I think I can now explain why the dollar must go down. I think its all connected to Trump's tax cut. He basically injected something like $1.5 trillion into the market. I guess that people from around the world invested their money in US shares to surf the wave of Trump's tax cut and then will leave when the US market starts to crash. Of course if the dollar goes up from here… I will have egg on my face!

  • Reply Art Rahman August 19, 2019 at 1:24 pm

    Foul mouth London bankers

  • Reply D N August 19, 2019 at 2:13 pm

    Bond market 40 trillion or equities market 30 trillion. If bond market blows up, corporations including USA corp dies. If equity market blows up, j6p gets upset and threatens not to vote for scumbag politician again. Guess which the elite will choose.

  • Reply malthus101 August 19, 2019 at 11:25 pm

    We're having this debate… the market is having this debate.. you could say, it's a mass-debate.

  • Reply John SorboroMD August 19, 2019 at 11:57 pm

    Does Julian REALLY think we will see rising interest rates? Is he kidding 4%? Rates are going negative everywhere. Regardless this debate is absolutely brilliant on both sides. Raoul thank you for doing this. It is such a public service

  • Reply dfb August 20, 2019 at 3:44 am

    I enjoyed this debate.thank you both. We need more of these thoughts

  • Reply onceANexile August 20, 2019 at 5:43 am

    I can't stand australians.

  • Reply Eksath de Silva August 20, 2019 at 7:32 am

    Hahaha, shorting the Dollar no, the Dollar is the last man standing – 1985 is here again – the Dollar is going to rise – there lies the problem – it's going to get to STRONG!

  • Reply Takis Panos August 20, 2019 at 7:45 am

    Top chaps…..top chat!!!

  • Reply How To Sand A Floor August 20, 2019 at 12:10 pm

    I love when Julian is disagreeing so he throws in a ‘mate’ to be polite 😂

  • Reply Joe April August 21, 2019 at 12:35 am

    what about silver?

  • Reply Lea Pustetto August 21, 2019 at 12:46 am

    Your right raoul. Im on your side

  • Reply Ryan Goulding August 21, 2019 at 2:30 am

    This my new mainstay channel . So glad your content is out there to give to those who still need some education . So much great info you all are putting out

  • Reply Maria das Santos August 21, 2019 at 3:02 pm

    Spirited discussion.

  • Reply Daniel Cid August 21, 2019 at 9:27 pm

    Hell of a debate, can't hardly wait for the end of summer!

  • Reply Jairo Linares August 22, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    Let's leave this right clear. World GDP is 100 but World debt is 350 right? So, the world is bankrupt. How the world is gonna survive of nukes?

  • Reply Hckytwn August 23, 2019 at 3:57 am

    Amazing discussion!!! Who’s right? Look at their left hand. That’s Best tell of who understands risk/reward and profit/cost.

  • Reply Winston Templet August 25, 2019 at 3:00 am

    Most on here are much smarter than me so I looking for some advice. I’m sitting on quite a bit of silver, do you think when gold moves that silver will move at the same rate?

  • Reply Frank William August 25, 2019 at 6:29 pm

    Julian is WRONG about the coming recession

  • Reply Stadtpark90 August 29, 2019 at 12:43 am

    42:41 lol

  • Reply Tom Lucas August 29, 2019 at 6:41 am

    This guy julian ? Dont worry, never crises, economy will boom in an aging demografic

  • Reply Cc Uu September 2, 2019 at 12:07 am

    Prefer the interview format. This just sounds like CNBC "buzz" to get people active in markets-any kind of market, for commissions, for fear.

  • Reply Ken P September 2, 2019 at 2:42 pm

    Here's a question. What if the G7 goes negative rates and the US goes dove but stays at +1%>

  • Reply S.Y B September 4, 2019 at 2:46 pm

    WoW 😲 awesome discussion!

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